BOTH the Barisan Nasional and the Opposition are going all-out to secure a win in the Sibu parliamentary by-election because the result may indicate what is to come in next state election.
Sarawak must hold the state election by June next year.
Sibu has 54,695 voters, of whom 66.7% or 36,398 are Chinese, 22.1% or 12,050 Ibans and other indigenous people, 10.5% or 5,740 Malays/Melanaus and 0.1% or 54 Indians.
According to an analysis in Oriental Daily News today, Barisan Nasional candidate Robert Lau Hui Yew, of Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), should be able to defend the seat for BN if he is able to garner 30% of the Chinese votes.
While SUPP is banking on BN’s usual trumph card of continued development and the 1Malaysia concept for a sixth consecutive victory in the constituency by winning back the Chinese votes it lost in the 2006 state election, the Opposition’s candidate, Richard Wong Ho Leng, of DAP, is armed with a new slogan, "Sibu leads the change", with the hope it will herald the dawn of a new political arena in the state.
But in a constituency where the simple folk are more concerned with bread and butter issues and economic development, DAP may find it hard to strike the right cord with the voters with national issues such as the controversy on the use of the word Allah by Christians, the cow-head protest, remarks by the Perkasa chief, and the Teoh Beng Hock and Aminulrasyid Amzah incidents.
To the BN, the 2,437 postal votes are already in the bag, giving it a headstart with at least 2,000 votes. It can also count on 70% of the Iban and Malay/Melanau voters, who number close to 18,000, to deliver the votes.
Basically, the economic pulse of Sibu is controlled by a few tycoons with a network of family-owned enterprises which are traditionally pro-establishment. It is estimated that more than 50% of Ibans and Malays/Melanaus are employed by businesses run by these tycoons, giving the BN an added advantage.
The report said that with a firm control of Iban and Malay/Melanau votes, SUPP needs only the support of 30% of the Chinese voters to retain the seat.
In the last election, in which Datuk Robert Lau Hoi Chew beat Wong by 3,549 votes, it was estimated that some 60% of the Chinese votes went to the DAP candidate.
Sibu town, as its other name Little Foochow suggests, is predominantly Foochows, with the Lau clan making up close to 20% of the population. The Foochows are known to be clannish, so it will not be surprising that the majority of the Laus will be supporting the BN candidate.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak is expected to visit Sibu again tomorrow, possibly with more good news for the constituency. Given such federal government support, SUPP should be able to scrap through.
Hard to predict, says Taib
>> SARAWAK Barisan Nasional (BN) chief and Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud says it is not easy to predict the outcome of the Sibu parliamentary by-election as Chinese voters are always unpredictable.
However, he remains optimistic that SUPP will be able to defend the seat, saying there are indications that those who voted for the Opposition in the 2006 state election are switching to support the BN.
According to a report in Nanyang Siang Pau today, Taib said the result of the Sibu election will not be used as the barometer for him to determine the timing of the next state election, which must be held by June next year.
He said although the fight for Sibu is important, the outcome will not be the key factor for him decide when to call for state election.
