The upcoming Tenang by-election is shaping up to be a test for voter confidence in Datuk Seri Najib Razak as Prime Minister, and whether he can lead the country under the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, says his political foes.
Pakatan Rakyat (PR) leaders have admitted that winning the state seat in the BN stronghold Johor would be “realistically” tough, but they claimed that reducing BN’s majority will affect Najib’s (picture) popularity as PM.
A recent survey by Merdeka Center showed Najib’s approval rating remains high among voters in peninsular Malaysia, dipping only slightly from 72 per cent in May to 69 per cent this month.
The poll showed that 74 per cent of Malays, 54 per cent of Chinese and 85 per cent of Indians were satisfied with the prime minister’s performance, in a major boost for Najib as he mulls an early general election next year.
“To be perfectly honest, winning this seat will tough. Realistically speaking, if we can function as a coalition and make enough inroads in Tenang to deny BN a majority win by say 1,000 votes, it would reflect on Najib’s leadership.
“You have to bear in mind that this is a BN stronghold, so if Najib does not win big here he is in trouble,” said Tony Pua, the DAP’s national publicity secretary.
Pua told The Malaysian Insider that the Tenang seat was “crucial” in ensuring that PR made inroads in Johor, a tradionally Umno area.
Another DAP MP, Anthony Loke said that PR should not be entirely focused on winning Tenang, as the “bigger picture” should be about getting across to voters there.
“If we can win, yes it will be an upset. But what we need to achieve there is to shake the confidence of BN, as well as Najib. Johor remains the only fixed deposit for BN in Peninsular Malaysia,” the party’s Youth Chief (Dapsy) told The Malaysian Insider.
PAS MP Khalid Samad said that the opposition bloc needed to focus on Felda votes, as it would be the deciding factor to PR’s victory or defeat in Tenang.
“I think we have a challenge, but a good chance too of winning. Our biggest challenge would be the Felda voters, as many of them remain uninformed to PR’s plans in reforming the federal government.
“If we do not win, what we want is to reduce BN’s majority there, which will also be tough as Johor is a traditional Umno-controlled state,” Khalid told The Malaysian Insider.
The Najib administration announced yesterday that it will pay out more than RM100 million in productivity bonus to Felda settlers for this year in what appears to be a bid to secure their votes in the next general elections.
Speculation is rife that polls will be held in the second quarter of 2011 and the Felda vote is seen as vulnerable due to a strong campaign by PR leaders among the settlers. The PAS-inspired Anak comprising younger generation settlers have managed to pressure the government to spend more money in Felda.
BN expects Felda’s finances to be a key issue during the Tenang by-election, as the state assembly seat has three Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) settlements — Felda Cempelak, Felda Cempelak Barat and Felda Tenang — which hold some 3,800 of the 14,511 voters in the constituency.
“In looking at Najib’s popularity, we also have to see what did people not like about him. We need to then focus on that and capitalise on Najib’s weaknesses as a leader – his indecisiveness for example,” PAS vice-president Datuk Mahfuz Omar told The Malaysian Insider.
The Tenang by-election has been set for January 30 with nomination day on January 22.
This is the country’s 14th by-election since Election 2008, after the death of Tenang state assemblyman Datuk Sulaiman Taha from Umno on December 17.
It is also the first by-election in the Umno bastion state of Johor since the March 2008 general election.
Tenang is one of two state seats in the Labis parliamentary constituency held by MCA’s Chua Tee Yong.
Sulaiman, 59, won the seat against PAS’s Mohd Saim Siran with a majority of 2,492 votes in Election 2008.
There are 14,753 registered voters in the Tenang state constituency, along with 18 postal voters.
The voter breakdown by race show 7,014 Malays (47.54 per cent), 5,766 Chinese (39.08 per cent), 1,780 Indians (12.07 per cent), 171 Orang Asli (1.16 per cent), and nine East Malaysian Bumiputeras (0.07 per cent).
