MCA is under pressure to deliver Chinese votes in the upcoming Tenang by-election in Johor and prove it has won back enough support to guarantee a Barisan Nasional (BN) win as the ruling coalition mulls snap polls in the next few months.
Leaders from both MCA and DAP, its main rival in Pakatan Rakyat (PR), say the battle will be for Chinese votes as they expect Umno has the Tenang Malay vote in the bag.
PR is already describing the Tenang vote as MCA’s and BN’s to lose as the battle would be fought on the ruling coalition’s Johor stronghold, a state that had escaped the 2008 political tsunami.
The non-Malays in Tenang — at nearly 52 per cent of the 14,592-strong electorate — could provide an indication of how the country’s Chinese and Indian voters will vote in the next general elections.
Chinese voters make up a whopping 39 per cent of the Tenang electorate while the Indian community has 12 per cent. The Malay voters make up about 49 per cent.
Tenang is also one of the two state seats under the Labis parliamentary constituency, formerly held by MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek (picture).
Labis is now helmed by Soi Lek’s son, Chua Tee Yong, another rising star in the Chinese-based party, the second largest component party in BN.
In Election 2008, Tee Yong lost to DAP over non-Malay support, but cruised to a win due to solid support for BN from the Malays.
Since he took over MCA’s reins this year, Soi Lek has been working hard to revitalise the party’s waning popularity by pushing for a greater voice in BN.
His outspokenness has already landed him in the soup numerous times with several top Umno leaders, who have publicly rejected the leader’s views and chastised him for going against BN’s ideals.
Opposition leaders believe the Tenang by-election will be crucial for Soi Lek to prove his worth and solidify his position, and his party’s, within BN.
“The stakes are much higher for MCA, compared to PR. Even though it is true that Umno is confident of sweeping up the Malay votes, the stakes are particularly high for Chua Soi Lek himself.
“MCA has to go all out to win this to save their faces, to save their relevance in BN. If they cannot win the Chinese votes, there is no longer a future for MCA and Chua Soi Lek; it is the end of the story for them,” said DAP MP Anthony Loke.
He admitted that while it would be an uphill task for PR to wrest Tenang from BN, the opposition had made some significant inroads in Johor since the last general election.
“The tsunami of 2008 never reached Johor. But now, voters have seen how it had impacted the other states and they may want to catch up.
“It is very difficult but we do hope for an upset. It is tough but nothing is impossible. The hearts and minds of the Malays – that will be our toughest breakthrough,” he said.
He claimed that over the year, DAP’s dinner and ceramah functions in Johor had seen tremendous response from voters, particularly the Chinese community.
This, he added, was a clear indication that the Chinese in Tenang safely backed PR.
But DAP MP Tony Pua believes that PR’s greatest hurdle would be in convincing the Chinese voters to back a PAS candidate and to allay their fears over the Islamic state issue.
He told The Malaysian Insider that figures from Elections 2008 proved that the Chinese voters had gladly backed DAP in Labis but had shied away from PAS in the Tenang vote.
“At the Labis parliamentary level, 70 per cent of Tenang constituents voted for DAP instead of BN’s MCA. But at state level, only 58 per cent voted for PAS.
“Among the Indians, this trend was similar but on a smaller scale,” he said.
Pua noted that PR’s lesson from the “unique” outcome was in seeing how its three component parties of DAP, PKR and PAS could work together as a team to attract the non-Malay vote.
“It will be a perfect test case to show whether PR is able to act as one,” he said.
He added that MCA would likely use its “fear-mongering” tactics to woo voters, by expounding on the Islamic state issue to frighten the non-Malay electorate.
Pua also admitted to PR’s likely failure in the Malay areas, pointing out that Umno’s large vote bank would come from the over 3,800 voters in Tenang’s three Felda settlements – Felda Cempelak, Felda Cempelak Barat and Felda Tenang.
In Elections 2008, he explained, PR had only managed to garner 17 per cent, 18 per cent and 19 per cent of votes in the three Felda areas respectively.
“So yes, it is quite terrible. From the past, it has always been difficult for us to increase votes in Felda areas due to the tight control,” he said.
Pua however agreed that the battle for Tenang would be BN’s to lose and was particularly crucial for parties like MCA and even Gerakan.
“There is no question that all parties will go all out here because Johor is the bastion of BN votes. And if they lose Tenang, or is even seen as shaky in Tenang, it bodes terribly for BN in the next general election in Johor.
“Also, if you look at MCA’s parliamentary representation, a number of their seats are located in Johor. For Gerakan, one of its two MP seats is in Johor,” he pointed out.
While for PR Pua said, Tenang was more a “green field”, an unchartered territory that the opposition would use to extract additional gains for the next general election.
Meanwhile, MCA leaders expressed cautious confidence when asked for their opinions on the Tenang vote.
MCA vice-president Datuk Chor Chee Heung claimed that the party had a solid footing with the Chinese community in Tenang, due to the popularity of leaders like Soi Lek and his son Tee Yong.
The Housing and Local Government Minister explained to The Malaysian Insider that according to feedback, MCA had strong voter support from the three Chinese new villages in the Tenang constituency.
“I am not sure about support outside these villages but from the feedback I get from the new villages, the majority is with BN,” he said.
He admitted that the Chinese vote for Labis had gone to the opposition during Elections 2008 but claimed that the trend had shifted significantly since then.
“This time, BN will perform better than in 2008. Reports in the past said that even though we won in Labis, quite a number of Chinese voters wanted to test out the opposition’s strength but now, their support is for BN.
“This is because of our close interaction with the community,” he said.
Chor added that the Chinese were also impressed with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s performance to date and would likely back BN due to this.
“Soi Lek is also a strong leader and his popularity will also help us,” he said.
On Soi Lek’s infamous sex DVD scandal of 2007, Chor scoffed at the possibility that the incident would return to haunt the MCA president in Tenang.
MCA secretary-general Datuk Seri Kong Cho Ha agreed that Soi Lek’s strong leadership skills and presence would help boost BN’s score in Tenang.
“Soi Lek knows many people there... not just from the Chinese community but also the Malays and the Indians.
“MCA also has a very strong presence in Labis and we hope to capitalise on that,” he said.
MCA central committee member Loh Seng Kok claimed that the non-Malay voters would likely return to BN’s fold after having seen PR’s performance in other states.
The voters, he added, would be more discerning than they were in 2008 and would likely vote for the party that best serves their interests.
“They have had the chance to compare PR and BN and they know now how effective PR can be – they only talk a lot but they have not presented a good report card yet.
“They cannot keep claiming it is because they are new in government... that argument cannot be accepted any longer,” he said.
The Tenang seat fell vacant following the death of its state assemblyman Datuk Sulaiman Taha due to blood infection and diabetes on December 17.
This will be the country’s 14th by-election since Elections 2008 and will be held on the back of intense speculation that the Najib administration would call for snap polls by next year.
The remote rural village falls under the Segamat district in Johor, and is one of the two state constituencies under Labis with the other being Bekok.
Bekok assemblyman Tan Kok Hong is also from MCA and is presently a state executive councillor in the Johor government.
In the 2004 election, BN won with a majority of 5,517 votes. The margin declined in 2008, when BN beat PAS with a majority of 2,492 votes.
The Election Commission is expected to announce the dates for the by-election’s nomination and polling days this Friday.
