Since it has been perceived that backing for Barisan Nasional (BN) from non-Malays, particularly the Chinese, appears to be on the decline, the two by-elections will again be important gauges.
Twenty per cent of Galas and 38 per cent of Batu Sapi voters are Chinese. The majority are bumiputeras.
Political and party insiders had attributed the drop in Chinese support for BN to have caused Galas, which used to be a BN stronghold, to fall to the opposition PAS in the last election. As much as 70 per cent of the 2,500 Chinese voters were said to have marked PAS in their ballot papers.
But for Batu Sapi, it is a different scenario: BN took 78 per cent of the Muslim bumiputera votes and garnered more than 50 per cent of the Chinese votes in 2008. Considered to be another BN bastion, it has a mix of 60 per cent Muslim bumiputera voters and 38 per cent Chinese voters.
It looks like BN will coast to victory again here, unless there is internal sabotage, say BN insiders.
The Batu Sapi seat fell vacant when PBS treasurer-general Datuk Edmund Chong Ket Wah, 54, was killed in a road accident on Saturday, while a by-election had to called in Galas after its incumbent, Chek Hashim Sulaima, 46, of PAS, died of cancer on Sept 27.
Chong was unchallenged in 2004 and retained the seat in the last general election with a majority 3,708 against independent candidate Dr Chung Kong Wing (9,479 votes to Chong against Dr Chung’s 5,771). PKR and DAP stayed away.
“Sabah is an interesting study for both sides as it has not held any by-election since the last general election,” said political analyst Khaw Veon Szu.
“However, it is still a good opportunity to assess the Chinese voters. The Chinese in Kelantan and Terengganu are always different from Sibu and other west coast states in Peninsula Malaysia,” said Khaw, the executive director of the Gerakan-linked think-tank, Socio-Economic Development and Research Institute (Sedar), adding that it was not just about gauging the level of Chinese support but also bumiputeras.
The Chinese voting trend seems to be more in favour of the Opposition in most by-elections since the last general election, except for Kuala Terengganu and Bagan Pinang by-elections in 2009, which showed some minor increases in Chinese votes towards BN.
“It would be interesting to see if the recent decision by some BN leaders in Sandakan to quit their own party and join other BN components would have any effect on voters in Batu Sapi,” noted Khaw.
In the past two years, several BN leaders such as Datuk Peter Pang En Yin quit the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to become an independent supporting BN while Datuk Raymond Tan Shu Kiah quit Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) to join Gerakan after SAPP pulled out from BN in late 2008.
Pang, who is still deputy chief minister of Sabah, is the state assemblyman for the Chinese majority Karamunting, one of two state seats under the Batu Sapi parliamentary. The other state seat is Sekong. Tan is the state assemblyman for Elopura, another state seat bordering the Sandakan parliamentary seat.
Monash University’s political analyst James Chin said Batu Sapi and Galas would not be good platforms to gauge support against the backdrop of the whole country as Galas was a rural Malay seat while Batu Sapi had its own set of localised issues.
However, for Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) strategic director Tian Chua, the results of both Galas and Batu Sapi would still serve as a good indication of voter sentiment as these two seats were known to be BN strongholds.
Tian Chua also downplayed the recent election fracas at the PKR Batu Sapi division and fragile opposition pact in Sabah as having the potential to spoil the party’s chances as the quarrel only involved two people.
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s political analyst Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said it was not so much about BN’s chances in both constituencies that mattered most but whether BN had addressed the root cause of declining support from the Chinese.
“Winning back the votes in these two seats is not a problem for BN if they can pick the right and popular candidate. The issue is larger, that is, whether BN strategies had addressed the problem,” he said.
“The trend in the past 14 by-elections has clearly shown that the Chinese are moving towards the Opposition. Despite the fact that they have representation in the federal government, they still voted for the Opposition,” he said, adding that BN strategists should look beyond by-elections and concentrate on solving problems.
United Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation secretary-general Datuk Wilfred Madius Tangau said losing Batu Sapi was not an option for BN in Sabah as the Sabah and Sarawak BN’s “fixed deposit” could erode.
